How Capable Are Japanese Patriot Missiles Against Threats?

Not Enough PAC-3s?

Currently, JASDF operates a total of 48 launchers allocated to 24 air defense units across the country.

While this may seem like a lot, it is unfortunately not enough to cover the entire territory of Japan due to the PAC-3’s protection range being a diameter of 50km or 31miles (though the story differs when Aegis destroyers are deployed at sea).

Nonetheless, since the PAC-3s are mobile units, they are able to deploy rather swiftly via the vast network of highways and national roads. For instance, emergency deployments were conducted to rural areas of Shimane and Ehime Prefecture following the danger of falling debris from North Korean missile tests.

Moreover, the PAC-3s operated by JASDF have been successfully replaced by the more agile and wide-range  “MSE” versions. The PAC-3 MSE is capable of coping with smaller nimble targets, thus enhancing the overall capability of JASDF air-defense units.

With the PAC-3’s mobility and the new MSE missiles in line, JASDF seems to be confident in protecting the entire territory of Japan, and the idea of forming additional PAC-3 units is absent at the moment.

100% Success Rate In Tests

So, exactly how good are Japanese PAC-3 units at intercepting targets?

JASDF has conducted several live-fire tests in the past and maintains a 100% success rate for now. These tests take place in the United States where it is possible to simulate real combat scenarios and easier to evaluate performance.

Because it is done at the same facilities, under similar scenarios, it is fair to say the capability of JASDF PAC-3 units are equivalent to that of its US counterparts.

Perhaps one interesting factor behind the success rate is the scarce opportunities to fire live rounds. Owing to budget constraints and ammunition shortage, Japan’s Self Defense Forces do not have the luxury of firing abundant rounds for training.

In a ironic twist, this compels SDF personnel to demonstrate their potential with little experience of live-fire training, paving way for a unique spirit in hitting the target with a single shot.

In any case, the JASDF PAC-3 units have proven themselves capable of intercepting simulated ballistic targets, but other factors will definitely disrupt such performance in actual combat.  After all, simulations are just simulations.

But, as destroying airborne ballistic missiles remains an extremely difficult task, something not any nation can just achieve even in simulated tests, the abilities demonstrated by JASDF is the best we can hope for in this peacetime.